COVID-19 – Covidian Monetary Theory – SMB perspective!

COVID-19 – Covidian Monetary Theory – SMB perspective!

The Gist: An insight into the plight of SMB entrepreneurs during the ongoing COVID-19 lockdown. Please read completely, or I recommend not to waste your time.

As we pass time in the lockdown to fight the Novel Corona or the COVID-19 threat, the Indian Government has taken a plethora of steps to ensure that people are not hit drastically by streamlining the demand-supply chain for essential commodities, ensuring that the lockdown is imposed properly and isolating cases in addition to announcing some great economic measures to ensure stability and peace.

The Indian lockdown scenario:

Official (as announced) – 21 days.

Disturbance before announcement – 3 days

Assuming monthly weekends – 8 days

Other holidays in the period of lockdown – 9 days

Total41 days of lost productivity.

We support the government in its entirety and understand the magnanimity of the task, announcing and executing the same in so short a time, is a great challenge. The government has kept its word on every commitment made and we are sure that we will successfully thwart the COVID-19 threat. Kudos.

We thank every frontline health worker, from doctors, nurses, and paramedics to those involved in sanitary services who are risking the COVID-19 infection to ensure that we, the common people live in relative safety.

While everything looks hunky-dory at this stage, let us look at the economic ramifications from an SMB [small and medium businesses] point of view that could surface once the COVID-19 lockdown is over [the possibility of the lockdown being extended is not ruled out].

Most SMB owners in India do not come from affluent or rich families. Compared to the salaried counterparts, most SMB owners would have about 2-month revenues as liquid savings. The intelligent salaried normally would have 4 to 6 months of salary as liquid savings. And a good entrepreneur takes about 10% of the turnover home, as salary or drawings.

The Indian SMB entrepreneurs can be classified as:

  1. The Upper Middle Class:

A family of 4 which can buy and maintain a car in the C2 segment such as a Honda city, or maybe 2 hatchbacks such as i10. Can think of buying a 2 bedroom apartment on loan in an average location in a city such as Bangalore. Or stay on rent in posh areas. Can send kids to good private schools and private engineering colleges. Can afford to watch movies in multiplex and eat in good restaurants on weekends. Go for holidays to Goa, Jaipur, Kerala once a year. And Thailand, Malaysia, etc once in 3 years. They save enough for a comfortable retirement and lavish weddings of kids. This needs an in-hand income of a minimum 1.5 lakhs a month. That is approximately 24 lakhs a year salary before tax. 1% Indians [about 1.5 crores] are in and above this class.*

How the lockdown pans out for an upper middle class entrepreneur:

He/She makes 24 lakhs a year.

Liquid savings prior to lockdown = 24/12 * 2 = INR 4 lakhs.

Assuming a take-home margin of 10% (which is ridiculous in today’s market), he will make a turnover of INR 2.4 Crores.

A lost period of 30 days (assuming a month) converts to a loss of INR 20 lakhs in turnover.

The general ratio of gross turnover to salary is about 35%>. Therefore the salaries paid in the period of no productivity is about INR 7.0 lakhs.

For any entrepreneur, the cost of living would be about 60% of the take-home including EMI’s. Therefore for the lockdown period where he is making no money, he would be spending:

On salaries – INR 700,000.00

Home expenses – INR 120,000.00

Gross Spend – INR 820,000.00

EMI Moratorium offset – INR 30,000

Net Spend – INR 790,000.00

Remember, the liquidity is only INR 400,000.00, so liquidity and credit cards will be stretched.

Liabilities in the next 60 days:

Opportunity loss (20% of lost turnover) – INR 800,000.00

50% opportunity loss for the next 60 days – INR 400,000.00

Business Income Tax payable (approx.) – INR 700,000.00

Personal Income tax payable (approx.) – INR 700,000.00

With business suddenly in recession and cash flow constricted, his open liabilities are INR 26,00,000.00, more than his yearly earnings.

2. Middle class:

A family of 4 which can rent a 2 bedroom apartment in an average area of the city. Buy and maintain a car such as the Hyundai i10. Watch a movie in multiplex once a month and eat out at average restaurants. Dream to own an apartment but cannot. Go for vacation once a year to Goa etc. Can buy branded clothes but not expensive electronics such as big tv or expensive cellphones. Can send kids to private schools but Cannot afford private engineering colleges in India. They manage to save for a decent retirement and kids wedding. They have an in-hand income of roughly INR 75,000 a month. That is a minimum salary of INR 12 lakhs CTC before taxes.*

For a middle-class entrepreneur, doing the same math as the upper-middle class, with business suddenly in recession and cash flow constricted, his open liabilities are INR 15,00,000.00, more than his yearly earnings.

3. Lower middle class:

A family of 4 which can afford to rent a 1 bedroom house in low-class areas of the city, buy and maintain a two-wheeler or entry-level hatchback on loan. Car such as alto and keep it for 15 to 20 years. Provide food and education to kids in a government college and cheap private schools. Any other expenses such as watching movies in a multiplex etc are unaffordable. They buy entry-level cellphones such as Moto E and go on a vacation to places like Khandala once a year. This lifestyle is possible with an in-hand income of about 40,000 a month in Indian cities such as Bangalore. An annual in-hand income of 4.8 lakhs. Hence lower-middle-class status starts at approx 6 lakhs annual income before taxes and savings.*

For a lower-middle-class entrepreneur, doing the same math like the rest, with business suddenly in recession and cash flow constricted, his open liabilities are INR 750,000.00, more than his yearly earnings.

How’s the cash flow in the COVID-19 lockdown:

The Rich and Affluent:

Big businesses that manufacture or distribute essential products are making good money for now, but the demand will diminish and balance out in a quarter following the lifting of the lockdown.

But, for now, they are accumulating the cash and riding the cash flow due to panic buying and rolling back the same into business, so a boost for them is inevitable.

Big businesses are run by the affluent or the government, therefore they are going cash-rich, albeit temporarily. This is more so since we are all paying or getting paid salaries on time irrespective of the COVID-19 lockdown.

The Salaried:

The salaried are not much affected by the lockdown financially since the salaries are mandatorily payable and they get to spend more and buy more due to savings on eating out, clubbing and all those expendable income activities.

The Below Poverty Line:

The most affected by this crisis are the people below the poverty line and the government has done well by ensuring the PDS [Public Distribution System] remains well-oiled and distributing free food, ration, and money. This is irrespective of the fact that their income has not taken a dent and they are being paid salaries on time.

The essential COVID-19 lockdown crisis:

As small business entrepreneurs, we are all between a rock and a hard place.

  1. We are paying salaries irrespective of work done or not.
  2. We have to run our homes, in a crisis.
  3. No income comes our way, at least for the 41 days.
  4. We are not being supported in any manner by the government.

We suffer with all the above, irrespective of the following facts**:

# Number of SMBs in India – 42.5 million – 95% of industrial units in India.

# Employment by. SMB’s – 106 million – 40% of country’s workforce.

# Deals in over 6000 products.

# Contribution to GDP – 6.11% of products & 24.63% of services.

# Output – 45% of manufacturing.

# Exports – 40% of overall exports.

# Asset base – Approx, INR 150 trillion [USD 2 trillion].

# YonY Growth rate – 10%.

So, if SMB’s are the backbone of the Indian economy, what is its future? How is the government looking at it?

The government has announced moratoriums on all loans and come up with a few sops. These sops are temporary, it is not that we do not have to pay taxes or interest, it is just that we need to pay later. That is all right, however, these 30/40 days of lost opportunity is not coming back.

Please keep in mind that as entrepreneurs, we are not looking for doles from the government, we are only looking forward to making the most of our opportunities.

And, in my part of the country, the lockdown seems ripe for an extension.

As always, the SMB owners are staring down the barrel.

On a more personal note, I would rather risk COVID-19 than die of disgrace or hunger. What do you say?

And, web marketing has changed, post pandemic, for sure!

While reading this, please note:

  1. This is my point of view only and I do not expect anyone to subscribe to it.
  2. The above points are purely apolitical and pragmatist and do not cater to any manifestos.

I am sure all the SMB owners and entrepreneurs are thinking on similar lines and it is time we came up with a solution before the business turns into a financial disaster. Prevention is better than cure and the government will not wake up to this.

And, what a perfect way to spend your isolation time.



* –

** – Evoma

Is COVID-19 isolation a colossal waste of time?

Is COVID-19 isolation a colossal waste of time?

First, I hope you and your  family are safe and in great health in this time of the pandemic, and you are not in what we call the COVID-19 isolation. I shall not like to harp on what, when, how, why and all that information overload that is being overly promulgated on the telly and the newspapers.

Second, the million dollar question – what are you doing in this COID-10 isolation quarantine?

Are you using your time to do something constructive or awesome instead of being bogged down and stressed out with news of Novel Corona and the statistics?

Are you looking at this isolation, quarantine, lockdown or curfew as wasted time or as a gifted opportunity?

I was looking at this as a paid holiday, but sadly, cannot go out anywhere. That would be an irresponsible statement, yes, kinda realised it the first day. So, let me tell you what I am doing with my gifted time.

This is not to give you a peek into my personal quarantine diary [not that I mind], but to share a few ideas to better yourself, or to pursue stuff that you have been intending to, but never found the time.

As for me, I have always been fascinated with the written word. I have been writing forever, probably since 2003 or 4, everywhere I can find space – internet, paper, blank walls, even on empty spaces across the columns of newspapers and magazines and of course in the recesses of my unused brain. So, the favouritism to reading and writing will be prominent in this piece, but then, each to his own poison.

No, this is not about marketing, SEO, keywords, rankings, content marketing or everything else you can think about. Let’s give Google a break.

This is just about what I am doing to overcome the Corona boredom.

I started out with getting bored for the first 4 days of COVID-19 isolation, then went into deep thought. I began counting the number of things I wanted to do but never could begin doing them.

Surprisingly, the count was far beyond the number of fingers I have.

I wrote them down [as I am inclined to] and prioritised them as I would – numbered them as per my passion-measure for each of them. Surprisingly, I found that, if only I had given more time and thought to them when they first occurred to my mind/heart, I would have been far better man and more successful in my profession.

And this is not even the entire list. Let me list my top fifteen:

  1. Plan my finances to tide through the crisis (remember, I am not salaried). – priority 01
  2. Clean up my attic, my room and my storage. – priority 02
  3. Get back to some great health by detoxing & exercise. – priority 03
  4. Spend a lot of quality time with family and involve kids in most of the above activities. – priority 04
  5. Rejuvenate myself with some great reading. – priority 05
  6. Rethink on my contribution to the society. – priority 06
  7. Try a few new recipes to ramp up on my culinary skills. – priority 07
  8. Up my stuck-up content marketing  skills. – priority 08
  9. Write a few short stories that can be made into films. – priority 09
  10. Catch up on my to-watch movie list. – priority 10
  11. Up my editing skills, both the written word and the video. – priority 11
  12. Change the way I speak or turn more articulate. – priority 12
  13. Revamp my website with some wonderful content. – priority 13
  14. Create an app that will simplify marketing, so much so that a startup can market itself without the help any agencies – save money and time and have a more focussed approach. – priority 14
  15. Practice my lowly guitar skills. – priority 15

Hmm…. So, we have a 40 day lockdown (could be less officially, but I am sure it is going to take that time to come back to normal). As you may know the. Corona Virus has a 40 day life-cycle and tapers bottom to top and then top to bottom in terms of an infection cycle. As I write this, the first 10 days are done with. What have I achieved in those 10 days of COVID-19 isolation?

  1. I was traveling on the first 4 days, so just tucked myself in my OYO Room, got drunk a bit on whiskey and ate what was offered by Swiggy. Wasted health, money and time. This for me, as usual, trying to lead a normal life in abnormal times. The ‘abnormal’ or ‘threat’ did not sink in, I guess.
  2. Staring the 5th day, I was able to do achieve the (2) above and was tired by the end of it, took an entire day and realised that I was so disorganised. The amazing part is that I found so many books that I never thought I had, and in fact many of them were unread or partly read. Time to finish and learn. That was a treasure found.
  3. So, (5) is in process and I hope to learn and grow at an intellectual level. The (12) too is happening in the evenings, in addition to (10) that is keeping me in excellent spirits, and these are ongoing processes. By the way (3) is also in the process with my new found love for cycling and it gives me an opportunity to go out whenever allowed to, by the authorities. Not to mention that alcohol and all kind of narcotics are off the shelves 🙂 in this COVID-19 isolation.
  4. (7) has always intrigued me, and I am cooking 2 meals a day and wife is going crazy cleaning up after me. But, I am putting a smile on my chidden’s faces and its all worth it. This in on and probably continue at least with one meal. By the way, I am already done with (1), though there will be jitters, I will tide over.
  5. Yet to clean the guitar (15), probably not now, but will try.
  6. With writing this piece, I am in the process of perfecting the (8) and (11).
  7. With (11) I am also curating some stories for (9) and (12)
  8. I am also giving a great deal of thought to (13) while processing the (12) loudly.

The (14) and the (15) are on the after-burner and will be starting out with them, one after another. However, I am not so sure that I Will have the time to get to (15).

My sincere apologies to the numeric references, however, I put them here with the purpose of getting more read-time. You know, things have to sink in!

Let us hear about what you have been doing during your COVID-19 isolation and we could probable grow on a few ideas, now that we have time, albeit enforced 🙂

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